Explainers

How Drop Coverage works

• How The Drop is chosen and graded
  The Drop is Drop Coverage's single biggest NBA player edge each night, chosen by the model and graded on closing-line value. The rules, what's recorded, and why CLV comes before covered or not.
• How our NBA predictions work
  How Drop Coverage predicts every NBA player's points, rebounds, assists and threes: minutes first, then production per minute, the opponent, and a range, each piece tested before it's used.
• How to read the NBA predictions board
  What every column on Drop Coverage's NBA predictions board means: our prediction and range, the bookmaker line, the difference, the edge and its side, the matchup and the hit rate.
• What the prediction ranges mean
  Every Drop Coverage prediction comes with a range the result lands inside 80% of the time. How the ranges are built, why they're lopsided, and how to use them against a bookmaker line.