Mavericks at Rockets · Sun 11 Oct · 9pm AEDT
Mavericks vs Rockets Prediction, Tips and Player Props – 11 Oct 2026 Free game of the day
We give the Rockets a 69% chance at home against the Mavericks on Sunday 11 October at 9pm AEDT. The bookmakers have Mavericks −0.5 with the total at 229.5. The Mavericks list Santi Aldama as questionable. The Mavericks have won 2 of their last 5 and are 3–2 against the spread over that stretch. The Rockets have won 4 of their last 5 and are 3–2 against the spread over that stretch.
Prediction
Model numbers. Projected score Mavericks 112, Rockets 118: a margin of Rockets by 6.0 against the bookmakers' Mavericks −0.5; total 229 against 229.5. Game-level model numbers are shown for context and aren't graded. Our graded record is player props: see the track record. Game trends is where the game-level value is.
Injuries and outs
- Mavericks Questionable: Santi Aldama
- Rockets no one listed
Form and rest
Mavericks
- W 149–128 v Bulls, Sun 12 Apr · won ATS
- L 120–139 at Spurs, Fri 10 Apr · lost ATS
- L 107–112 at Suns, Wed 8 Apr · won ATS
- L 103–116 at Clippers, Tue 7 Apr · lost ATS
- W 134–128 v Lakers, Sun 5 Apr · won ATS
Rockets
- W 132–101 v Grizzlies, Sun 12 Apr · won ATS
- L 132–136 v Timberwolves, Fri 10 Apr · lost ATS
- W 113–102 v 76ers, Thu 9 Apr · won ATS
- W 119–105 at Suns, Tue 7 Apr · won ATS
- W 117–116 at Warriors, Sun 5 Apr · lost ATS
Game trends in this situation
Each side in this game's situation, last season (this season has no games yet). Change the situation or date range.
Mavericks
- Mavericks away, as favourite, after a win 2–2 straight up, 1–3 ATS, overs 2–2, -2.8 v spread n=4
- Mavericks away 10–31 straight up, 16–25 ATS, overs 15–26, -0.6 v spread n=41
- Mavericks as favourite 12–12 straight up, 9–15 ATS, overs 9–15, -5.0 v spread n=24
- Mavericks after a win 8–17 straight up, 9–16 ATS, overs 14–11, -1.1 v spread n=25
- Mavericks all games 26–56 straight up, 36–46 ATS, overs 37–45, -0.9 v spread n=82
Rockets
- Rockets at home, as underdog, after a loss: no games yet
- Rockets at home 30–11 straight up, 17–24 ATS, overs 16–25, -0.7 v spread n=41
- Rockets as underdog 4–6 straight up, 6–4 ATS, overs 3–7, -1.7 v spread n=10
- Rockets after a loss 22–8 straight up, 15–15 ATS, overs 12–18, +0.2 v spread n=30
- Rockets all games 52–30 straight up, 36–46 ATS, overs 39–43, -1.1 v spread n=82
Key players
Mavericks
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg 24 min predicted | 10/4/1 · 33/6/5 · 11/11/6 · 25/9/2 · 45/8/9 | — | — | — | — |
| P.J. Washington 24 min predicted | 15/6/0 · 5/5/0 · 19/15/1 · 9/3/2 · 21/6/0 | — | — | — | — |
| Santi Aldama 24 min predicted | 12/6/0 · 17/7/2 · 9/5/3 · 18/5/1 · 15/8/3 | — | — | — | — |
| Kyrie Irving 22 min predicted | 7/1/1 · 31/5/3 · 25/9/5 · 35/7/4 · 17/5/4 | — | — | — | — |
| Max Christie 21 min predicted | 12/1/1 · 16/1/2 · 18/2/2 · 12/5/1 · 8/1/2 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Rockets
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson 32 min predicted | 18/8/3 · 15/7/4 · 23/4/7 · 26/11/4 · 16/5/9 | — | — | — | — |
| Jabari Smith Jr. 30 min predicted | 9/12/3 · 22/7/3 · 16/8/3 · 24/6/1 · 18/6/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Marcus Smart 26 min predicted | 5/2/3 · 10/3/3 · 14/4/5 · 12/4/7 · 7/7/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Reed Sheppard 24 min predicted | 10/0/1 · 12/0/6 · 17/1/3 · 17/4/7 · 0/0/3 | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Durant 22 min predicted | 23/6/4 · 33/7/7 · 29/7/5 · 24/4/3 · 31/8/8 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Player predictions
Every player in the game, our prediction against the line. Lines from Australian bookmakers; a US book stands in where none has priced a player. Edges and the full board for this game.
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Threes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | ||||
| Cooper Flagg | 17.6 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| P.J. Washington | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Santi Aldama | 11.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Kyrie Irving | 15.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| Max Christie | 8.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 8.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| John Poulakidas | 9.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Naji Marshall | 10.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Moussa Cisse | 5.7 | 7.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Daniel Gafford | 8.5 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Dwight Powell | 3.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Marcus Sasser | 4.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Dereck Lively II | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Caleb Martin | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Jett Howard | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Rockets | ||||
| Amen Thompson | 16.5 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 0.2 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Marcus Smart | 9.0 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| Reed Sheppard | 11.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Kevin Durant | 16.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| Alperen Sengun | 13.4 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 0.3 |
| Tari Eason | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Clint Capela | 5.7 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Fred VanVleet | 6.2 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 6.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 6.9 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Steven Adams | 3.3 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Julian Phillips | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Isaiah Crawford | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Sean Pedulla | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
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