Timberwolves at Heat · Sun 11 Oct · 11am AEDT
Timberwolves vs Heat Prediction, Tips and Player Props – 11 Oct 2026
Our model makes the Heat 58% favourites at home on Sunday 11 October at 11am AEDT. The bookmakers have Timberwolves −2.5 with the total at 234.5. The Timberwolves will be missing Donte DiVincenzo. The Heat will be missing Keshad Johnson. The Timberwolves have won 3 of their last 5 and are 3–2 against the spread over that stretch. The Heat have won 2 of their last 5 and are 3–2 against the spread over that stretch. Timberwolves away, as favourite, after a loss: 6–5 against the spread over 11 games last season.
Prediction
Model numbers. Projected score Timberwolves 117, Heat 119: a margin of Heat by 2.6 against the bookmakers' Timberwolves −2.5; total 236 against 234.5. Game-level model numbers are shown for context and aren't graded. Our graded record is player props: see the track record. Game trends is where the game-level value is.
Injuries and outs
- Timberwolves Out: Donte DiVincenzo
- Heat Out: Keshad Johnson
Form and rest
Timberwolves
- W 132–126 v Pelicans, Sun 12 Apr · won ATS
- W 136–132 at Rockets, Fri 10 Apr · won ATS
- L 120–132 at Magic, Wed 8 Apr · lost ATS
- W 124–104 at Pacers, Tue 7 Apr · won ATS
- L 108–122 v Hornets, Sun 5 Apr · lost ATS
Heat
- L 126–127 at Hornets, Tue 14 Apr · won ATS
- W 143–117 v Hawks, Sun 12 Apr · won ATS
- W 140–117 at Wizards, Fri 10 Apr · won ATS
- L 114–128 at Raptors, Thu 9 Apr · lost ATS
- L 95–121 at Raptors, Tue 7 Apr · lost ATS
Game trends in this situation
Each side in this game's situation, last season (this season has no games yet). Change the situation or date range.
Timberwolves
- Timberwolves away, as favourite, after a loss 8–3 straight up, 6–5 ATS, overs 5–6, +2.7 v spread n=11
- Timberwolves away 23–18 straight up, 19–22 ATS, overs 24–17, +0.6 v spread n=41
- Timberwolves as favourite 41–19 straight up, 26–34 ATS, overs 26–34, -1.6 v spread n=60
- Timberwolves after a loss 20–13 straight up, 17–16 ATS, overs 15–18, +0.1 v spread n=33
- Timberwolves all games 49–33 straight up, 37–45 ATS, overs 38–44, -1.0 v spread n=82
Heat
- Heat at home, as underdog, after a loss 3–1 straight up, 3–1 ATS, overs 2–2, +4.2 v spread n=4
- Heat at home 26–15 straight up, 23–18 ATS, overs 24–17, +1.3 v spread n=41
- Heat as underdog 18–25 straight up, 25–18 ATS, overs 27–16, +2.7 v spread n=43
- Heat after a loss 21–18 straight up, 25–14 ATS, overs 21–18, +1.9 v spread n=39
- Heat all games 43–40 straight up, 47–36 ATS, overs 48–35, +1.3 v spread n=83
Key players
Timberwolves
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lyles 25 min predicted | 11/2/1 · 9/7/0 · 17/9/4 · 7/6/1 · 7/8/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. 23 min predicted | 21/2/1 · 2/0/4 · 8/2/2 · 5/2/2 · 12/5/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Edwards 22 min predicted | 24/2/2 · 20/2/2 · 36/6/2 · 32/14/6 · 12/3/0 | — | — | — | — |
| Jaylen Clark 21 min predicted | 2/3/0 · 0/0/0 · 3/0/1 · 2/1/0 · 3/2/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Jaden McDaniels 20 min predicted | 13/1/3 · 17/6/2 · 14/6/0 · 17/7/2 · 12/3/4 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Heat
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell 23 min predicted | 28/4/6 · 12/2/1 · 15/3/11 · 9/1/6 · 12/4/6 | — | — | — | — |
| Pelle Larsson 22 min predicted | 6/3/3 · 24/0/6 · 10/4/2 · 7/3/1 · 16/7/4 | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Wiggins 21 min predicted | 27/7/3 · 4/2/2 · 11/3/5 · 5/1/2 · 24/5/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Bez Mbeng 20 min predicted | 14/4/9 · 27/11/11 · 26/3/3 · 0/2/2 · 7/1/2 | — | — | — | — |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo 20 min predicted | 31/14/8 · 31/6/3 · 22/6/3 · 27/9/8 · 24/5/4 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Player predictions
Every player in the game, our prediction against the line (US market lines). Edges and the full board for this game.
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Threes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves | ||||
| Trey Lyles | 8.6 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 12.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Anthony Edwards | 16.7 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Jaylen Clark | 6.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 10.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| LaMelo Ball | 15.5 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 |
| Bones Hyland | 10.2 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Rudy Gobert | 5.5 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Joan Beringer | 9.6 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 9.9 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| Zyon Pullin | 7.3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Cody Williams | 5.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| KJ Martin | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Antonio Reeves | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Enrique Freeman | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Rocco Zikarsky | 3.1 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Isaiah Evans | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Drew Timme | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Norchad Omier | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Heat | ||||
| Davion Mitchell | 9.0 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 |
| Pelle Larsson | 10.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 11.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Bez Mbeng | 5.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 19.0 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 0.2 |
| Simone Fontecchio | 10.5 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Bam Adebayo | 11.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Bobby Portis | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Lester Quinones | 7.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 8.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Nikola Jovic | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Nick Richards | 6.8 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Klay Thompson | 9.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Kylor Kelley | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Dru Smith | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Myron Gardner | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Ryan Conwell | 3.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Vladislav Goldin | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
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