Thunder at Rockets · Fri 16 Oct ·
Thunder vs Rockets Prediction, Tips and Player Props – 16 Oct 2026
We give the Thunder a 52% chance on the road against the Rockets on Friday 16 October at . The bookmakers have Thunder −4.5 with the total at 224.5. The Thunder are without Otega Oweh. The Rockets list Steven Adams as questionable. The Thunder have won 3 of their last 5 and are 3–2 against the spread over that stretch. The Rockets have won 4 of their last 5 and are 3–2 against the spread over that stretch.
Prediction
Model numbers. Projected score Thunder 111, Rockets 111: a margin of Thunder by 0.5 against the bookmakers' Thunder −4.5; total 222 against 224.5. Game-level model numbers are shown for context and aren't graded. Our graded record is player props: see the track record. Game trends is where the game-level value is.
Injuries and outs
- Thunder Out: Otega Oweh
- Rockets Questionable: Steven Adams
Form and rest
Thunder
- L 103–135 v Suns, Sun 12 Apr · lost ATS
- L 107–127 at Nuggets, Fri 10 Apr · lost ATS
- W 128–110 at Clippers, Wed 8 Apr · won ATS
- W 123–87 at Lakers, Tue 7 Apr · won ATS
- W 146–111 v Jazz, Sun 5 Apr · won ATS
Rockets
- W 132–101 v Grizzlies, Sun 12 Apr · won ATS
- L 132–136 v Timberwolves, Fri 10 Apr · lost ATS
- W 113–102 v 76ers, Thu 9 Apr · won ATS
- W 119–105 at Suns, Tue 7 Apr · won ATS
- W 117–116 at Warriors, Sun 5 Apr · lost ATS
Game trends in this situation
Each side in this game's situation, last season (this season has no games yet). Change the situation or date range.
Thunder
- Thunder away, as favourite, after a loss 4–0 straight up, 4–0 ATS, overs 3–1, +12.2 v spread n=4
- Thunder away 30–11 straight up, 20–20 ATS, overs 22–18, +2.0 v spread n=41
- Thunder as favourite 62–14 straight up, 36–40 ATS, overs 39–37, +0.8 v spread n=76
- Thunder after a loss 12–5 straight up, 8–9 ATS, overs 10–7, -5.0 v spread n=17
- Thunder all games 64–18 straight up, 39–42 ATS, overs 44–37, +0.8 v spread n=82
Rockets
- Rockets at home, as underdog, after a loss: no games yet
- Rockets at home 30–11 straight up, 17–24 ATS, overs 16–25, -0.7 v spread n=41
- Rockets as underdog 4–6 straight up, 6–4 ATS, overs 3–7, -1.7 v spread n=10
- Rockets after a loss 22–8 straight up, 15–15 ATS, overs 12–18, +0.2 v spread n=30
- Rockets all games 52–30 straight up, 36–46 ATS, overs 39–43, -1.1 v spread n=82
Key players
Thunder
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 38 min predicted | 35/4/9 · 15/1/4 · 32/2/9 · 19/4/7 · 26/2/12 | — | — | — | — |
| Chet Holmgren 28 min predicted | 4/4/0 · 10/11/1 · 16/11/1 · 10/9/2 · 14/3/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Cason Wallace 25 min predicted | 17/7/4 · 11/3/1 · 7/4/5 · 5/4/1 · 11/5/4 | — | — | — | — |
| Ajay Mitchell 24 min predicted | 2/5/1 · 10/0/2 · 4/4/5 · 28/3/4 · 24/4/10 | — | — | — | — |
| Jalen Williams 24 min predicted | 1/0/1 · 4/1/0 · 26/7/3 · 19/1/4 · 22/7/6 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Rockets
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson 35 min predicted | 18/8/3 · 15/7/4 · 23/4/7 · 26/11/4 · 16/5/9 | — | — | — | — |
| Jabari Smith Jr. 32 min predicted | 9/12/3 · 22/7/3 · 16/8/3 · 24/6/1 · 18/6/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Durant 29 min predicted | 23/6/4 · 33/7/7 · 29/7/5 · 24/4/3 · 31/8/8 | — | — | — | — |
| Alperen Sengun 29 min predicted | 17/11/1 · 14/9/8 · 19/6/2 · 33/16/6 · 20/11/5 | — | — | — | — |
| Marcus Smart 22 min predicted | 5/2/3 · 10/3/3 · 14/4/5 · 12/4/7 · 7/7/1 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Player predictions
Every player in the game, our prediction against the line. Lines from Australian bookmakers; a US book stands in where none has priced a player. Edges and the full board for this game.
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Threes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder | ||||
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 30.8 | 4.0 | 8.3 | 1.7 |
| Chet Holmgren | 14.5 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Cason Wallace | 8.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 12.0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| Jalen Williams | 15.2 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 0.8 |
| Alex Caruso | 9.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Jared McCain | 11.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 7.6 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Jaylin Williams | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Kenrich Williams | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Aday Mara | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Nikola Topic | 2.6 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| Rockets | ||||
| Amen Thompson | 17.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 0.3 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 14.4 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Kevin Durant | 21.0 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| Alperen Sengun | 16.1 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 0.4 |
| Marcus Smart | 7.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Tari Eason | 8.8 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Fred VanVleet | 7.2 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Reed Sheppard | 8.6 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 6.8 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Steven Adams | 2.8 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Clint Capela | 2.4 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Julian Phillips | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Isaiah Crawford | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Sean Pedulla | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Today's NBA tips · Thunder · Rockets · Every Thunder v Rockets game