Kings at Warriors · Sun 11 Oct · 11:30am AEDT
Kings vs Warriors Prediction, Tips and Player Props – 11 Oct 2026
The Warriors are 83% to beat the Kings at home on Sunday 11 October at 11:30am AEDT, by our numbers. The bookmakers have Warriors −5.5 with the total at 229.5. Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody are out for the Warriors. The Kings have won 2 of their last 5 and are 4–1 against the spread over that stretch. The Warriors have won 2 of their last 5 and are 1–4 against the spread over that stretch. Warriors at home, as favourite, after a loss: 6–8 against the spread over 14 games last season.
Prediction
Model numbers. Projected score Kings 110, Warriors 121: a margin of Warriors by 11.5 against the bookmakers' Warriors −5.5; total 231 against 229.5. Game-level model numbers are shown for context and aren't graded. Our graded record is player props: see the track record. Game trends is where the game-level value is.
Injuries and outs
- Kings no one listed
- Warriors Out: Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody
Form and rest
Kings
- L 110–122 at Trail Blazers, Sun 12 Apr · won ATS
- W 124–118 v Warriors, Fri 10 Apr · won ATS
- L 105–110 at Warriors, Tue 7 Apr · won ATS
- L 109–138 v Clippers, Sun 5 Apr · lost ATS
- W 117–113 v Pelicans, Fri 3 Apr · won ATS
Warriors
- W 126–121 at Clippers, Wed 15 Apr · won ATS
- L 110–115 at Clippers, Sun 12 Apr · lost ATS
- L 118–124 at Kings, Fri 10 Apr · lost ATS
- L 103–119 v Lakers, Thu 9 Apr · lost ATS
- W 110–105 v Kings, Tue 7 Apr · lost ATS
Game trends in this situation
Each side in this game's situation, last season (this season has no games yet). Change the situation or date range.
Kings
- Kings away, as underdog, after a loss 7–25 straight up, 16–16 ATS, overs 16–16, -1.2 v spread n=32
- Kings away 7–34 straight up, 18–23 ATS, overs 21–20, -2.5 v spread n=41
- Kings as underdog 16–57 straight up, 32–41 ATS, overs 36–37, -2.1 v spread n=73
- Kings after a loss 15–44 straight up, 25–34 ATS, overs 31–28, -2.1 v spread n=59
- Kings all games 22–60 straight up, 36–46 ATS, overs 42–40, -2.1 v spread n=82
Warriors
- Warriors at home, as favourite, after a loss 11–3 straight up, 6–8 ATS, overs 7–7, -2.7 v spread n=14
- Warriors at home 22–19 straight up, 18–23 ATS, overs 25–16, -2.4 v spread n=41
- Warriors as favourite 29–21 straight up, 21–29 ATS, overs 33–17, -2.7 v spread n=50
- Warriors after a loss 23–22 straight up, 23–22 ATS, overs 26–19, -0.2 v spread n=45
- Warriors all games 38–45 straight up, 36–47 ATS, overs 49–34, -1.9 v spread n=83
Key players
Kings
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Achiuwa 24 min predicted | 27/11/4 · 5/6/4 · 13/6/4 · 8/5/0 · 12/7/2 | — | — | — | — |
| Daeqwon Plowden 23 min predicted | 8/1/2 · 20/9/3 · 11/1/1 · 15/2/3 · 17/3/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Darius Acuff Jr. 22 min predicted | no games yet | — | — | — | — |
| Ben Simmons 22 min predicted | 0/2/1 · 0/1/2 · 0/7/2 · 2/0/3 · 0/1/2 | — | — | — | — |
| Nique Clifford 20 min predicted | 24/7/5 · 20/6/6 · 12/6/2 · 18/5/5 · 23/5/6 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Warriors
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski 24 min predicted | 23/10/0 · 17/7/2 · 10/4/2 · 30/3/1 · 17/1/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Stephen Curry 24 min predicted | 17/4/4 · 35/1/4 · 24/6/3 · 11/3/5 · 17/5/2 | — | — | — | — |
| Draymond Green 24 min predicted | 5/2/6 · 7/6/9 · 7/4/6 · 2/5/6 · 1/6/7 | — | — | — | — |
| Gui Santos 23 min predicted | 9/6/4 · 20/6/5 · 7/7/2 · 7/3/6 · 15/4/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Yaxel Lendeborg 22 min predicted | no games yet | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Player predictions
Every player in the game, our prediction against the line (US market lines). Edges and the full board for this game.
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Threes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kings | ||||
| Precious Achiuwa | 11.8 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| Daeqwon Plowden | 10.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 8.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Ben Simmons | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 0.0 |
| Nique Clifford | 8.2 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Keegan Murray | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| Zach LaVine | 11.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Dylan Cardwell | 4.8 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Elfrid Payton | 2.5 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 0.0 |
| Maxime Raynaud | 8.3 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Malik Monk | 8.4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 7.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Leaky Black | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Adam Flagler | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Jonathan Mogbo | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| Tristen Newton | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Warriors | ||||
| Brandin Podziemski | 14.4 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Stephen Curry | 20.6 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Draymond Green | 6.6 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.1 |
| Gui Santos | 11.7 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 10.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 12.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Al Horford | 7.3 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Brandon Williams | 11.0 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| Gary Payton II | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Georges Niang | 8.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| LJ Cryer | 7.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Will Richard | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Miles Kelly | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Charles Bassey | 5.6 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Malevy Leons | 3.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Dalen Terry | 3.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
Today's NBA tips · Kings · Warriors · Every Kings v Warriors game