Explainer

How to read the NBA predictions board

Each row on the predictions board is one player and one market, read left to right: who he is and his minutes, our prediction, the bookmaker's line and price, the gap between them, and how that gap looks as a probability.

Two views

Leaders shows one market at a time (points, rebounds, assists, threes or a combined market) with tonight's top 15. Full board shows every player in every market, and can be filtered by game, team and market, or cut down to clear edges only. Both can be sorted by edge, prediction or difference. Every game's page links to the board filtered to that game, and the board links back.

The columns

• Player. Team, tonight's opponent and predicted minutes. Notes appear underneath when they matter: a teammate out and how this player has done without him, a different position tonight, or "early estimate" for players with fewer than ten NBA games.
• Mkt. The market. Each has its own colour so points and rebounds are easy to tell apart; combined markets (PRA, PR, PA, RA) share one.
• Pred. Our prediction, in orange. A small "i" beside it means the number moved after team news; hover or tap it for the earlier value and the reason ("22.4 → 25.1, Jokić out").
• Line. The bookmaker's line and the decimal price for the side our numbers favour. Until Australian bookmakers price NBA player props, these are US market lines, and the top of the page says so.
• Diff. Our prediction minus the line, in points and as a percentage.
• Edge. Our probability of the side landing, minus the bookmaker's probability once its margin is taken out. A clear edge (3% or more) shows its side: green ▲O for the over, red ▼U for the under. Smaller gaps are shown muted and without a side.
• Matchup. How much more (or less) tonight's opponent gives up to this player's position than the league average, and its rank, where 1st is the softest.
• Hit L10. How often our side would have landed in his last ten games against tonight's line.

Why edge and difference can disagree

A prediction two points over a line isn't always an over edge. The price matters: if the over is priced at 1.60, the bookmaker already expects it, and the value can sit on the under. Difference also blows up on small lines: a prediction of 1.0 against a 0.5 line is "+100%" but a modest edge. That's why the board sorts by edge, which accounts for the line, the price and how uncertain the player is.

The free game of the day

One game each night is marked as the free game. From 1 December its rows stay fully open to everyone; until then every row is.

When a number moves

After team news, a changed prediction shows its earlier value and the reason behind the "i". The time of the last update is at the top of every page. If a run fails, the site keeps the last good numbers and says clearly that they're out of date.

What's free from 1 December

Player, market, the bookmaker line and price, and how often he has gone over tonight's line in his last five and last ten games stay free for every row. The prediction, difference, edge, matchup and the with/without notes are for members, except in the free game of the day.

What the board isn't

These are statistical estimates, not advice to bet. The board shows the number, the line and the gap, and leaves the decision to you.