Our track record: every projection, checked in public

The track record starts from opening night, 20 October (21 October AEDT). From then, every prediction is graded here the morning after, in the open.

Accuracy: how far off, on average

Average miss per player game (our prediction against what he did), by market. Bias is the average of prediction minus result: above zero means we ran high.

Market	Last 7 days	Last 30 days	Season	Bias

Ranges: do they hold?

Every prediction comes with a range the result should land inside 80% of the time. If the ranges are honest, the season column sits near 80%, with misses split evenly above and below.

Market	Inside the range	Below	Above	Player games

Graded props: covered or not

A prop is graded when, 90 minutes before tip, our chance beats the de-vigged market by 5 points or more and the prediction sits clear of the line (1.5 points, 1 rebound or assist, 0.5 threes). One market per player, one flat unit at the locked price, closed 15 minutes before tip for closing-line value, graded the morning after, voided if he doesn't play. Nothing is removed. Return on stake is published from 100 graded props; closing-line value is the headline before then. Lines come from Australian bookmakers where they price the player, otherwise the US market, labelled. The rules in full.

The Drop

Every edge on the board

Every edge of 3% or more at the reference bookmaker, whether or not it was the tip, graded against the closing line: the price when we flagged it against the bookmaker's fair price at tip-off.

How this is graded

Each player game is graded on our last prediction before tip-off, for every player who took the court. Players who didn't play aren't graded. Nothing is removed after the fact, and the record starts on opening night: preseason games aren't counted. Prices and lines are US market lines until Australian books price NBA player props, and are labelled as such.