The Drop
NBA tips today: The Drop, our biggest edge on the record
The Drop is our single biggest edge each night, posted around 8pm Sydney time the night before the games and graded in public on closing-line value. Each Drop names its bookmaker.
The record
| Games | Player | Drop | Posted | Closed | CLV | Result |
|---|
How it's chosen
The pipeline chooses it, never a person. Every night it compares our prediction for every player with every bookmaker's line and takes the single biggest gap between our probability and the bookmaker's, once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
Points, rebounds, assists, threes and the combined markets (Pts + Reb, Pts + Ast, Reb + Ast, Pts + Reb + Ast) only. The line has to be at Sportsbet or TAB, at a price of 1.70 or better, for a player with a settled role. In the opening week (20 to 26 October, US dates) there are no unders on projected starters, and nothing on a player's first three games back after 20 or more games out. It's posted around 8pm Sydney time the night before the games, here and on X at @drop_coverage.
It's graded first on closing-line value: the price we posted against the bookmaker's fair price when the market closed. Beating the close over a season is the clearest sign the numbers are ahead of the market; covered or not over a few dozen nights mostly measures luck. Preseason Drops are a trial run: listed here, never counted.