Thunder at Spurs · Wed 21 Oct ·
Thunder vs Spurs Prediction, Tips and Player Props – 21 Oct 2026 Free game of the day
The Spurs are 53% to beat the Thunder at home on Wednesday 21 October at , by our numbers. The bookmakers have Spurs −2.5 with the total at 231.5. Otega Oweh is out for the Thunder. Jayden Quaintance is out for the Spurs. The Thunder have won 3 of their last 5 and are 3–2 against the spread over that stretch. The Spurs have won 3 of their last 5 and are 3–2 against the spread over that stretch. Spurs at home, as favourite, after a loss: 8–3 against the spread over 11 games last season.
Prediction
Model numbers. Projected score Thunder 111, Spurs 112: a margin of Spurs by 1.0 against the bookmakers' Spurs −2.5; total 223 against 231.5. Game-level model numbers are shown for context and aren't graded. Our graded record is player props: see the track record. Game trends is where the game-level value is.
Injuries and outs
- Thunder Out: Otega Oweh
- Spurs Out: Jayden Quaintance
Form and rest
Thunder
- L 103–135 v Suns, Sun 12 Apr · lost ATS
- L 107–127 at Nuggets, Fri 10 Apr · lost ATS
- W 128–110 at Clippers, Wed 8 Apr · won ATS
- W 123–87 at Lakers, Tue 7 Apr · won ATS
- W 146–111 v Jazz, Sun 5 Apr · won ATS
Spurs
- L 118–128 v Nuggets, Sun 12 Apr · lost ATS
- W 139–120 v Mavericks, Fri 10 Apr · won ATS
- W 112–101 v Trail Blazers, Wed 8 Apr · won ATS
- W 115–102 v 76ers, Mon 6 Apr · won ATS
- L 134–136 at Nuggets, Sat 4 Apr · lost ATS
Game trends in this situation
Each side in this game's situation, last season (this season has no games yet). Change the situation or date range.
Thunder
- Thunder away, as underdog, after a loss: no games yet
- Thunder away 30–11 straight up, 20–20 ATS, overs 22–18, +2.0 v spread n=41
- Thunder as underdog 2–3 straight up, 3–2 ATS, overs 5–0, +1.5 v spread n=5
- Thunder after a loss 12–5 straight up, 8–9 ATS, overs 10–7, -5.0 v spread n=17
- Thunder all games 64–18 straight up, 39–42 ATS, overs 44–37, +0.8 v spread n=82
Spurs
- Spurs at home, as favourite, after a loss 9–2 straight up, 8–3 ATS, overs 2–9, +2.8 v spread n=11
- Spurs at home 32–8 straight up, 23–17 ATS, overs 18–22, +1.1 v spread n=40
- Spurs as favourite 49–14 straight up, 34–29 ATS, overs 28–35, +1.1 v spread n=63
- Spurs after a loss 15–5 straight up, 13–7 ATS, overs 5–15, +4.2 v spread n=20
- Spurs all games 62–21 straight up, 48–35 ATS, overs 36–47, +3.1 v spread n=83
Key players
Thunder
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35 min predicted | 35/4/9 · 15/1/4 · 32/2/9 · 19/4/7 · 26/2/12 | 2/5 over 29.5 | 0/5 over 4.5 | 4/5 over 6.5 | 3/5 over 1.5 |
| Chet Holmgren 31 min predicted | 4/4/0 · 10/11/1 · 16/11/1 · 10/9/2 · 14/3/1 | 2/5 over 13.5 | 3/5 over 7.5 | 1/5 over 1.5 | 0/5 over 1.5 |
| Jalen Williams 30 min predicted | 1/0/1 · 4/1/0 · 26/7/3 · 19/1/4 · 22/7/6 | 3/5 over 17.5 | 2/5 over 4.5 | 1/5 over 4.5 | 2/5 over 1.5 |
| Cason Wallace 29 min predicted | 17/7/4 · 11/3/1 · 7/4/5 · 5/4/1 · 11/5/4 | 3/5 over 9.5 | 4/5 over 3.5 | 3/5 over 2.5 | 3/5 over 1.5 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein 26 min predicted | 7/5/0 · 10/5/3 · 12/15/4 · 12/7/3 · 5/8/4 | 3/5 over 7.5 | 1/5 over 8.5 | 4/5 over 2.5 | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Spurs
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox 33 min predicted | 7/0/5 · 18/5/7 · 12/3/8 · 20/3/5 · 7/4/5 | 2/5 over 14.5 | 2/5 over 3.5 | 2/5 over 5.5 | 2/5 over 1.5 |
| Devin Vassell 33 min predicted | 12/7/2 · 18/5/4 · 11/4/0 · 14/9/5 · 9/9/3 | 3/5 over 11.5 | 5/5 over 3.5 | 3/5 over 2.5 | 4/5 over 1.5 |
| Stephon Castle 32 min predicted | 6/5/4 · 13/5/5 · 23/5/5 · 14/4/4 · 17/8/3 | 2/5 over 15.5 | 1/5 over 5.5 | 0/5 over 6.5 | 2/5 over 1.5 |
| Victor Wembanyama 31 min predicted | 19/14/2 · 24/13/1 · 32/8/6 · 29/9/2 · 26/12/2 | 2/5 over 26.5 | 3/5 over 11.5 | 1/5 over 2.5 | 4/5 over 1.5 |
| Tobias Harris 30 min predicted | 5/5/2 · 6/5/3 · 13/6/3 · 16/8/5 · 21/5/0 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Player predictions
Every player in the game, our prediction against the line. Lines from Australian bookmakers; a US book stands in where none has priced a player. Edges and the full board for this game.
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Threes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder | ||||
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 28.0 v 29.5 | 3.9 v 4.5 | 7.7 v 6.5 | 1.5 v 1.5 |
| Chet Holmgren | 15.5 v 13.5 | 9.1 v 7.5 | 1.5 v 1.5 | 1.2 v 1.5 |
| Jalen Williams | 19.2 v 17.5 | 4.8 v 4.5 | 5.7 v 4.5 | 1.2 v 1.5 |
| Cason Wallace | 9.6 v 9.5 | 3.7 v 3.5 | 2.9 v 2.5 | 1.7 v 1.5 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 10.3 v 7.5 | 10.0 v 8.5 | 3.9 v 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Alex Caruso | 8.5 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Jared McCain | 9.9 v 9.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 v 1.5 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 8.7 v 11.5 | 2.3 v 3.5 | 2.6 v 2.5 | 0.7 v 1.5 |
| Kenrich Williams | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Jaylin Williams | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Nikola Topic | 3.5 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 0.4 |
| Aday Mara | 3.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Spurs | ||||
| De'Aaron Fox | 15.6 v 14.5 | 4.0 v 3.5 | 6.1 v 5.5 | 1.7 v 1.5 |
| Devin Vassell | 12.2 v 11.5 | 4.8 v 3.5 | 2.6 v 2.5 | 2.6 v 1.5 |
| Stephon Castle | 17.0 v 15.5 | 5.5 v 5.5 | 6.3 v 6.5 | 1.5 v 1.5 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 22.3 v 26.5 | 11.1 v 11.5 | 2.7 v 2.5 | 2.0 v 1.5 |
| Tobias Harris | 13.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Keldon Johnson | 11.7 v 7.5 | 5.2 v 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Dylan Harper | 13.2 v 14.5 | 4.6 v 4.5 | 3.0 v 3.5 | 1.1 v 1.5 |
| Julian Champagnie | 6.3 v 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Harrison Barnes | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Luke Kornet | 3.3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Carter Bryant | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| David Jones Garcia | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
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