Mavericks at Heat ·

Mavericks vs Heat Prediction, Tips and Player Props – 27 Oct 2026

Final: Mavericks 113, Heat 109. We had the Heat at 57% and the Mavericks won. Our projected score was Mavericks 115, Heat 118. Against the closing line (Heat −7.5) the Mavericks won against the spread. The total went under the bookmakers' 240.5 (222); we had 233.

The Heat are 57% to beat the Mavericks at home on , by our numbers. The bookmakers have Heat −7.5 with the total at 240.5. Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic, Dereck Lively II, Naji Marshall and Caleb Martin are out for the Mavericks. The Mavericks have won 2 of their last 5 and are 2–3 against the spread over that stretch. The Heat have lost 3 straight and are 2–3 against the spread over that stretch. They last met on Mon 26 Oct: Mavericks 113–109.

Prediction

Mavericks win chance
43%
Heat win chance
57%
Bookmakers
Heat −7.5
total 240.5

Model numbers. Projected score Mavericks 115, Heat 118: a margin of Heat by 2.3 against the bookmakers' Heat −7.5; total 233 against 240.5. Game-level model numbers are shown for context and aren't graded. Our graded record is player props: see the track record. Game trends is where the game-level value is.

Injuries and outs

Form and rest

Mavericks on one day's rest

  • L 106–122 v Spurs, Sat 24 Oct · lost ATS
  • W 121–105 at Pacers, Fri 23 Oct · won ATS
  • L 110–128 at Rockets, Wed 21 Oct · lost ATS
  • W 149–128 v Bulls, Sun 12 Apr · won ATS
  • L 120–139 at Spurs, Fri 10 Apr · lost ATS

Heat on one day's rest

  • L 110–115 at Hornets, Sat 24 Oct · lost ATS
  • L 111–128 v Pistons, Fri 23 Oct · lost ATS
  • L 106–131 v Timberwolves, Wed 21 Oct · lost ATS
  • W 143–117 v Hawks, Sun 12 Apr · won ATS
  • W 140–117 at Wizards, Fri 10 Apr · won ATS

Game trends in this situation

Each side in this game's situation, this season. Change the situation or date range.

Mavericks

  • Mavericks away, as underdog, after a win, on no rest: no games yet
  • Mavericks away 2–1 straight up, 2–1 ATS, overs 1–2, +8.8 v spread n=3
  • Mavericks as underdog 2–2 straight up, 2–2 ATS, overs 1–3, +6.2 v spread n=4
  • Mavericks on no rest 0–1 straight up, 0–1 ATS, overs 0–1, -1.5 v spread n=1
  • Mavericks after a win 0–2 straight up, 0–2 ATS, overs 1–1, -5.0 v spread n=2

Heat

  • Heat at home, as favourite, after a loss, on no rest: no games yet
  • Heat at home 0–3 straight up, 0–3 ATS, overs 1–2, -17.8 v spread n=3
  • Heat as favourite 0–3 straight up, 0–3 ATS, overs 0–3, -15.8 v spread n=3
  • Heat on no rest 0–1 straight up, 0–1 ATS, overs 0–1, -9.5 v spread n=1
  • Heat after a loss 0–4 straight up, 0–4 ATS, overs 1–3, -15.8 v spread n=4

Meetings this season

Today's NBA tips · Mavericks · Heat · Every Mavericks v Heat game