Pacers at Mavericks ·
Pacers vs Mavericks Prediction, Tips and Player Props – 10 Nov 2026
Final: Pacers 122, Mavericks 125. We had the Mavericks at 68% and the Mavericks won, as predicted. Our projected score was Pacers 109, Mavericks 114. Against the closing line (Mavericks −4.5) the Pacers won against the spread. The total went over the bookmakers' 227.5 (247); we had 223.
The Mavericks are 68% to beat the Pacers at home on , by our numbers. The bookmakers have Mavericks −4.5 with the total at 227.5. Johnny Furphy, Tyrese Haliburton and Ben Sheppard are out for the Pacers. Tarik Biberovic, Sergio de Larrea, Morez Johnson Jr. and Dereck Lively II are out for the Mavericks. The Mavericks are on the second night of a back-to-back while the Pacers are on one day's rest. The Pacers have won 1 of their last 5 and are 2–3 against the spread over that stretch. The Mavericks have won 3 of their last 5 and are 4–1 against the spread over that stretch. They last met on Mon 9 Nov: Mavericks 125–122.
Prediction
Model numbers. Projected score Pacers 109, Mavericks 114: a margin of Mavericks by 5.7 against the bookmakers' Mavericks −4.5; total 223 against 227.5. Game-level model numbers are shown for context and aren't graded. Our graded record is player props: see the track record. Game trends is where the game-level value is.
Injuries and outs
- Pacers Out: Johnny Furphy, Tyrese Haliburton and Ben Sheppard
- Mavericks Out: Tarik Biberovic, Sergio de Larrea, Morez Johnson Jr. and Dereck Lively II
Form and rest
Pacers on one day's rest
- L 102–114 v Nuggets, Sat 7 Nov · lost ATS
- W 107–103 at Grizzlies, Wed 4 Nov · won ATS
- L 104–108 v Hawks, Mon 2 Nov · won ATS
- L 90–98 v Nets, Sun 1 Nov · lost ATS
- L 125–145 at Heat, Fri 30 Oct · lost ATS
Mavericks on the second night of a back-to-back
- W 130–93 v Nets, Sun 8 Nov · won ATS
- W 112–100 v Jazz, Fri 6 Nov · won ATS
- L 111–112 at Spurs, Wed 4 Nov · won ATS
- L 100–115 v Kings, Mon 2 Nov · lost ATS
- W 116–111 v Rockets, Fri 30 Oct · won ATS
Game trends in this situation
Each side in this game's situation, this season. Change the situation or date range.
Pacers
- Pacers away, as underdog, after a loss, on 1 day's rest 1–2 straight up, 2–1 ATS, overs 2–1, -0.2 v spread n=3
- Pacers away 3–3 straight up, 4–2 ATS, overs 4–2, +1.6 v spread n=6
- Pacers as underdog 1–5 straight up, 4–2 ATS, overs 2–4, +0.5 v spread n=6
- Pacers on 1 day's rest 2–5 straight up, 4–3 ATS, overs 3–4, -1.6 v spread n=7
- Pacers after a loss 3–5 straight up, 6–2 ATS, overs 4–4, +2.2 v spread n=8
Mavericks
- Mavericks at home, as favourite, after a win, on no rest 1–0 straight up, 0–1 ATS, overs 1–0, -1.5 v spread n=1
- Mavericks at home 5–2 straight up, 4–3 ATS, overs 2–5, +7.1 v spread n=7
- Mavericks as favourite 3–1 straight up, 2–2 ATS, overs 1–3, +2.8 v spread n=4
- Mavericks on no rest 1–1 straight up, 0–2 ATS, overs 1–1, -1.5 v spread n=2
- Mavericks after a win 4–3 straight up, 3–4 ATS, overs 3–4, +5.1 v spread n=7
Key players
Pacers
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard | 9/1/8 · 22/2/5 · 23/3/4 · 22/2/9 · 18/3/14 | — | — | — | — |
| Pascal Siakam | 23/2/5 · 20/4/2 · 17/5/5 · 13/5/4 · 26/11/3 | — | — | — | — |
| Aaron Nesmith | 8/5/1 · 16/2/2 · 11/3/4 · 9/3/2 · 18/2/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 2/1/0 · 11/2/1 · 10/4/1 · 15/3/1 · 9/3/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Obi Toppin | 10/7/2 · 11/5/1 · 13/6/0 · 14/6/2 · 16/6/2 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Mavericks
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 25/5/12 · 21/10/7 · 19/10/5 · 17/4/6 · 33/9/6 | — | — | — | — |
| P.J. Washington | 6/5/0 · 26/6/1 · 21/10/3 · 12/5/1 · 3/10/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Kyrie Irving | 21/3/4 · 14/2/2 · 29/7/5 · 35/4/9 · 15/2/4 | — | — | — | — |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 11/6/1 · 4/4/1 · 2/1/2 · 0/5/1 · 12/6/3 | — | — | — | — |
| Naji Marshall | 8/1/2 · 7/1/5 · 22/5/3 · 5/2/7 · 10/4/5 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
The Drop
Andrew Nembhard reb + ast over 8.5 at 1.71 (PointsBet). The record.
Meetings this season
- Mon 9 Nov: Pacers 122, Mavericks 125
- Fri 23 Oct: Mavericks 121, Pacers 105