Heat at Jazz ·
Heat vs Jazz Prediction, Tips and Player Props – 11 Nov 2026
Final: Heat 115, Jazz 109. We had the Heat at 68% and the Heat won, as predicted. Our projected score was Heat 118, Jazz 112. Against the closing line (Heat −8.75) the Jazz won against the spread. The total went under the bookmakers' 227.5 (224); we had 230.
Our model makes the Heat 68% favourites on the road on . The bookmakers have Heat −8.75 with the total at 227.5. The Jazz will be missing Keyonte George, Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic and Trey Alexander. The Heat have won 3 of their last 5 and are 1–4 against the spread over that stretch. The Jazz have lost 5 straight and are 0–5 against the spread over that stretch. They last met on Tue 10 Nov: Heat 115–109.
Prediction
Model numbers. Projected score Heat 118, Jazz 112: a margin of Heat by 5.4 against the bookmakers' Heat −8.75; total 230 against 227.5. Game-level model numbers are shown for context and aren't graded. Our graded record is player props: see the track record. Game trends is where the game-level value is.
Injuries and outs
- Heat no one listed
- Jazz Out: Keyonte George, Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic and Trey Alexander
Form and rest
Heat on one day's rest
- W 114–108 at Kings, Sun 8 Nov · lost ATS
- L 100–120 at Warriors, Thu 5 Nov · lost ATS
- W 117–116 at Clippers, Wed 4 Nov · lost ATS
- L 117–138 at Lakers, Mon 2 Nov · lost ATS
- W 145–125 v Pacers, Fri 30 Oct · won ATS
Jazz on one day's rest
- L 100–115 at Timberwolves, Sun 8 Nov · lost ATS
- L 100–112 at Mavericks, Fri 6 Nov · lost ATS
- L 113–120 at Pelicans, Wed 4 Nov · lost ATS
- L 97–119 at Spurs, Mon 2 Nov · lost ATS
- L 90–112 v Trail Blazers, Sat 31 Oct · lost ATS
Game trends in this situation
Each side in this game's situation, this season. Change the situation or date range.
Heat
- Heat away, as favourite, after a win, on 1 day's rest 1–0 straight up, 0–1 ATS, overs 0–1, -2.8 v spread n=1
- Heat away 4–3 straight up, 1–6 ATS, overs 2–5, -6.3 v spread n=7
- Heat as favourite 4–3 straight up, 1–6 ATS, overs 1–6, -7.1 v spread n=7
- Heat on 1 day's rest 4–2 straight up, 2–4 ATS, overs 3–3, -1.5 v spread n=6
- Heat after a win 2–2 straight up, 1–3 ATS, overs 2–2, -6.6 v spread n=4
Jazz
- Jazz at home, as underdog, after a loss, on 1 day's rest 0–2 straight up, 2–0 ATS, overs 0–2, +5.1 v spread n=2
- Jazz at home 1–5 straight up, 2–4 ATS, overs 1–5, -2.0 v spread n=6
- Jazz as underdog 0–10 straight up, 2–8 ATS, overs 2–8, -4.6 v spread n=10
- Jazz on 1 day's rest 1–7 straight up, 2–6 ATS, overs 2–6, -1.1 v spread n=8
- Jazz after a loss 1–9 straight up, 2–8 ATS, overs 1–9, -4.4 v spread n=10
Key players
Heat
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 17/3/11 · 22/2/8 · 11/2/10 · 15/0/7 · 15/6/11 | — | — | — | — |
| Bam Adebayo | 18/8/4 · 18/10/0 · 35/10/4 · 16/9/4 · 27/9/3 | — | — | — | — |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 29/14/3 · 20/14/4 · 27/14/6 · 30/12/7 · 31/18/10 | — | — | — | — |
| Pelle Larsson | 11/3/3 · 13/1/4 · 7/3/4 · 9/3/2 · 18/3/3 | — | — | — | — |
| Klay Thompson | 23/2/4 · 11/0/3 · 30/5/3 · 19/1/1 · 25/0/3 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Jazz
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauri Markkanen 34 min predicted | 24/8/1 · 21/10/4 · 22/8/3 · 13/6/1 · 2/0/0 | — | — | — | — |
| Ace Bailey 34 min predicted | 7/2/3 · 12/6/0 · 15/5/1 · 5/6/2 · 9/7/1 | — | — | — | — |
| Keyonte George 32 min predicted | 19/5/8 · 16/6/9 · 39/2/9 · 7/7/0 · 8/3/4 | — | — | — | — |
| Darryn Peterson 31 min predicted | 26/6/4 · 21/2/5 · 7/2/7 · 14/4/6 · 16/4/4 | — | — | — | — |
| Jaxson Hayes 25 min predicted | 18/6/1 · 8/6/3 · 2/7/1 · 9/5/0 · 7/7/2 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
The Drop
Davion Mitchell points over 12.5 at 1.78 (Sportsbet). The record.
Meetings this season
- Tue 10 Nov: Heat 115, Jazz 109
Today's NBA tips · Heat · Jazz