Thunder at Cavaliers ·
Thunder vs Cavaliers Prediction, Tips and Player Props – 3 Nov 2026
Final: Thunder 117, Cavaliers 112. We had the Cavaliers at 69% and the Thunder won. Our projected score was Thunder 110, Cavaliers 116. Against the closing line (Cavaliers −4.5) the Thunder won against the spread. The total went under the bookmakers' 229.5 (229); we had 226.
Our model makes the Cavaliers 69% favourites at home on . The bookmakers have Cavaliers −4.5 with the total at 229.5. The Thunder will be missing Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic, Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams. The Cavaliers will be missing Jaylon Tyson and Peyton Watson. The Thunder have won 3 of their last 5 and are 2–3 against the spread over that stretch. The Cavaliers have won 4 of their last 5 and are 2–3 against the spread over that stretch. They last met on Mon 2 Nov: Thunder 117–112.
Prediction
Model numbers. Projected score Thunder 110, Cavaliers 116: a margin of Cavaliers by 6.1 against the bookmakers' Cavaliers −4.5; total 226 against 229.5. Game-level model numbers are shown for context and aren't graded. Our graded record is player props: see the track record. Game trends is where the game-level value is.
Injuries and outs
- Thunder Out: Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic, Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams
- Cavaliers Out: Jaylon Tyson and Peyton Watson
Form and rest
Thunder on one day's rest
- L 98–119 at Rockets, Sat 31 Oct · lost ATS
- L 96–120 at Mavericks, Wed 28 Oct · lost ATS
- W 125–114 v Suns, Mon 26 Oct · won ATS
- W 108–101 v Clippers, Sun 25 Oct · lost ATS
- W 96–84 v Nuggets, Thu 22 Oct · won ATS
Cavaliers on one day's rest
- W 136–111 at Bucks, Sat 31 Oct · won ATS
- L 111–114 at Hawks, Thu 29 Oct · lost ATS
- W 121–111 v Wizards, Wed 28 Oct · won ATS
- W 127–125 v Timberwolves, Mon 26 Oct · lost ATS
- W 125–121 v Nets, Sat 24 Oct · lost ATS
Game trends in this situation
Each side in this game's situation, this season. Change the situation or date range.
Thunder
- Thunder away, as underdog, after a win, on no rest: no games yet
- Thunder away 2–2 straight up, 2–2 ATS, overs 0–4, -7.0 v spread n=4
- Thunder as underdog 1–1 straight up, 1–1 ATS, overs 0–2, -4.5 v spread n=2
- Thunder on no rest 1–0 straight up, 1–0 ATS, overs 1–0, +2.5 v spread n=1
- Thunder after a win 3–1 straight up, 2–2 ATS, overs 1–3, -8.2 v spread n=4
Cavaliers
- Cavaliers at home, as favourite, after a loss, on no rest: no games yet
- Cavaliers at home 3–1 straight up, 1–3 ATS, overs 2–2, -4.3 v spread n=4
- Cavaliers as favourite 4–1 straight up, 2–3 ATS, overs 3–2, -0.3 v spread n=5
- Cavaliers on no rest 0–1 straight up, 0–1 ATS, overs 0–1, -1.5 v spread n=1
- Cavaliers after a loss 2–1 straight up, 1–2 ATS, overs 2–1, +1.1 v spread n=3
Key players
Thunder
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 33 min predicted | 26/4/3 · 21/6/2 · 26/3/3 · 34/6/5 · 17/2/3 | 1/5 over 31.5 | 3/5 over 3.5 | 0/5 over 6.5 | 2/5 over 2.5 |
| Ajay Mitchell 33 min predicted | 6/3/5 · 29/4/3 · 30/2/5 · 18/6/4 · 12/0/0 | 2/5 over 19.5 | 2/5 over 3.5 | 2/5 over 4.5 | 1/5 over 1.5 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein 26 min predicted | 10/7/0 · 10/14/3 · 15/13/3 · 12/12/1 · 6/6/2 | 2/5 over 10.5 | 3/5 over 10.5 | 0/5 over 3.5 | — |
| Jared McCain 26 min predicted | 10/4/2 · 10/4/4 · 18/3/4 · 3/1/0 · 4/0/1 | 1/5 over 13.5 | 3/5 over 2.5 | — | 1/5 over 2.5 |
| Alex Caruso 22 min predicted | 9/2/3 · 12/7/6 · 7/4/5 · 9/6/1 · 12/5/4 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Cavaliers
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden 34 min predicted | 13/6/7 · 24/5/4 · 16/2/6 · 19/5/9 · 12/8/7 | 2/5 over 17.5 | 4/5 over 4.5 | 3/5 over 6.5 | 3/5 over 2.5 |
| Donovan Mitchell 34 min predicted | 15/4/3 · 22/3/3 · 19/5/7 · 26/5/7 · 22/5/4 | 1/5 over 22.5 | 3/5 over 4.5 | 2/5 over 4.5 | 1/5 over 2.5 |
| Evan Mobley 33 min predicted | 27/5/3 · 11/4/7 · 24/12/2 · 18/10/3 · 20/10/4 | 4/5 over 17.5 | 3/5 over 8.5 | 2/5 over 3.5 | 4/5 over 1.5 |
| Peyton Watson 29 min predicted | 5/2/6 · 4/4/3 · 22/6/2 · 15/8/1 · 11/3/4 | — | — | — | — |
| Jarrett Allen 28 min predicted | 25/11/4 · 14/8/1 · 8/12/2 · 10/9/2 · 21/8/0 | 3/5 over 11.5 | 3/5 over 8.5 | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Player predictions
Every player in the game, our prediction against the line. Lines from Australian bookmakers; a US book stands in where none has priced a player. Edges and the full board for this game.
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Threes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder | ||||
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 30.2 v 31.5 | 4.0 v 3.5 | 6.0 v 6.5 | 1.9 v 2.5 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 20.1 v 19.5 | 4.2 v 3.5 | 4.8 v 4.5 | 1.2 v 1.5 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 10.6 v 10.5 | 11.6 v 10.5 | 3.0 v 3.5 | 0.0 |
| Jared McCain | 13.7 v 13.5 | 3.2 v 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 v 2.5 |
| Alex Caruso | 9.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| Kenrich Williams | 8.3 v 8.5 | 5.0 v 4.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 v 1.5 |
| Jaylin Williams | 6.0 v 7.5 | 6.3 v 6.5 | 2.0 v 2.5 | 1.8 v 1.5 |
| Aday Mara | 8.6 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 5.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Micah Peavy | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Josh Dix | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cavaliers | ||||
| James Harden | 17.3 v 17.5 | 4.8 v 4.5 | 6.2 v 6.5 | 2.5 v 2.5 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 23.8 v 22.5 | 5.0 v 4.5 | 4.9 v 4.5 | 2.9 v 2.5 |
| Evan Mobley | 17.8 v 17.5 | 8.8 v 8.5 | 3.6 v 3.5 | 1.5 v 1.5 |
| Peyton Watson | 12.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Jarrett Allen | 14.7 v 11.5 | 7.9 v 8.5 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| Meleek Thomas | 12.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Sam Merrill | 8.1 v 8.5 | 2.2 v 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 v 2.5 |
| Mario Hezonja | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 7.5 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Thomas Bryant | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Craig Porter | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tristan Enaruna | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Riley Minix | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Meetings this season
- Mon 2 Nov: Thunder 117, Cavaliers 112
Today's NBA tips · Thunder · Cavaliers · Every Thunder v Cavaliers game