Heat at Warriors ·
Heat vs Warriors Prediction, Tips and Player Props – 6 Nov 2026 Free game of the day
Final: Heat 100, Warriors 120. We had the Warriors at 61% and the Warriors won, as predicted. Our projected score was Heat 117, Warriors 120. Against the closing line (Warriors −3.5) the Warriors won against the spread. The total went under the bookmakers' 236.5 (220); we had 237.
The Warriors are 61% to beat the Heat at home on , by our numbers. The bookmakers have Warriors −3.5 with the total at 236.5. Vladislav Goldin is out for the Heat. Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis and Gui Santos are out for the Warriors. The Heat are on the second night of a back-to-back while the Warriors are on 2 days' rest. The Heat have won 3 of their last 5 and are 2–3 against the spread over that stretch. The Warriors have won 5 straight and are 5–0 against the spread over that stretch. They last met on Thu 5 Nov: Warriors 120–100.
Prediction
Model numbers. Projected score Heat 117, Warriors 120: a margin of Warriors by 3.4 against the bookmakers' Warriors −3.5; total 237 against 236.5. Game-level model numbers are shown for context and aren't graded. Our graded record is player props: see the track record. Game trends is where the game-level value is.
Injuries and outs
- Heat Out: Vladislav Goldin
- Warriors Out: Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis and Gui Santos
Form and rest
Heat on the second night of a back-to-back
- W 117–116 at Clippers, Wed 4 Nov · lost ATS
- L 117–138 at Lakers, Mon 2 Nov · lost ATS
- W 145–125 v Pacers, Fri 30 Oct · won ATS
- W 129–117 at Hawks, Wed 28 Oct · won ATS
- L 109–113 v Mavericks, Mon 26 Oct · lost ATS
Warriors on 2 days' rest
- W 116–113 v Suns, Mon 2 Nov · won ATS
- W 124–112 v Clippers, Sun 1 Nov · won ATS
- W 112–95 v Lakers, Fri 30 Oct · won ATS
- W 119–114 at Timberwolves, Wed 28 Oct · won ATS
- W 134–114 at Nuggets, Mon 26 Oct · won ATS
Game trends in this situation
Each side in this game's situation, this season. Change the situation or date range.
Heat
- Heat away, as underdog, after a loss, on no rest: no games yet
- Heat away 2–3 straight up, 1–4 ATS, overs 2–3, -7.0 v spread n=5
- Heat as underdog 1–3 straight up, 1–3 ATS, overs 3–1, -9.0 v spread n=4
- Heat on no rest 0–2 straight up, 0–2 ATS, overs 0–2, -13.0 v spread n=2
- Heat after a loss 2–4 straight up, 1–5 ATS, overs 2–4, -8.9 v spread n=6
Warriors
- Warriors at home, as favourite, after a win, on 2–3 days' rest 1–0 straight up, 1–0 ATS, overs 0–1, +16.5 v spread n=1
- Warriors at home 4–1 straight up, 4–1 ATS, overs 2–3, +8.1 v spread n=5
- Warriors as favourite 3–1 straight up, 3–1 ATS, overs 2–2, +4.9 v spread n=4
- Warriors on 2–3 days' rest 1–0 straight up, 1–0 ATS, overs 0–1, +16.5 v spread n=1
- Warriors after a win 5–0 straight up, 5–0 ATS, overs 3–2, +11.3 v spread n=5
Key players
Heat
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 11/2/10 · 15/0/7 · 15/6/11 · 10/1/10 · 21/0/2 | — | — | — | — |
| Bam Adebayo | 35/10/4 · 16/9/4 · 27/9/3 · 24/9/3 · 8/8/3 | — | — | — | — |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 27/14/6 · 30/12/7 · 31/18/10 · 24/18/3 · 29/14/11 | — | — | — | — |
| Pelle Larsson | 7/3/4 · 9/3/2 · 18/3/3 · 17/6/8 · 12/0/4 | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Wiggins | 3/4/1 · 7/0/2 · 12/2/1 · 18/2/2 · 12/3/1 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
Warriors
| Player | Last 5 | Points v line | Rebounds v line | Assists v line | Threes v line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 20/3/2 · 17/8/8 · 21/5/6 · 8/5/6 · 18/7/5 | — | — | — | — |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 16/5/5 · 37/4/6 · 6/1/0 · 26/9/1 · 31/12/6 | — | — | — | — |
| Stephen Curry | 34/6/7 · 31/4/6 · 44/8/6 · 24/3/3 · 24/2/4 | — | — | — | — |
| Draymond Green | 4/4/2 · 2/4/9 · 3/9/6 · 3/4/7 · 5/5/6 | — | — | — | — |
| Gui Santos | 4/3/1 · 2/5/1 · 13/3/1 · 7/4/3 · 5/4/2 | — | — | — | — |
Last 5: points/rebounds/assists, most recent first. "Over" counts how many of those games cleared tonight's line.
The Drop
Georges Niang rebounds under 3.5 at 1.72 (Sportsbet). The record.
Meetings this season
- Thu 5 Nov: Heat 100, Warriors 120
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